A Mizani Africa survey, released on November 15, 2025, shows that President William Ruto leads in Tana River County with 61.4% support for the 2027 presidential race. This puts him far ahead of Fred Matiang’i, who has 10%, Kalonzo Musyoka at 4.8%, and Rigathi Gachagua with 3.3%. 17% of respondents remain undecided.
Ruto’s Strong Showing in Tana River
Ruto’s impressive 61.4% support in Tana River marks a significant shift. In the 2022 election, he only garnered 21.3% of the vote in the region. His rise in popularity is linked to his increased presence and efforts to connect with local communities. Tana River, home to diverse ethnic groups like the Pokomo, Orma, and Somali, has often been a battleground for political influence. This poll suggests that Ruto has made considerable inroads in the region.
Grassroots Campaigns Drive Ruto’s Support
Ruto’s grassroots campaigns have been key to his rise in Tana River. He has focused on development projects that directly benefit local communities, from infrastructure to education and health services. Local political leaders, including Governor Dhadho Godhana, have supported his efforts, further solidifying his base. Ruto’s commitment to addressing the region’s needs has helped him secure stronger backing compared to other presidential contenders.
Matiang’i, Musyoka, and Gachagua Struggle to Gain Ground
While Ruto enjoys strong support, his rivals face challenges in gaining traction in Tana River. Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Rigathi Gachagua have not been able to match Ruto’s presence in the area. Despite their campaigns, they have struggled to connect with the diverse populations in the region. This has allowed Ruto to maintain a commanding lead in the poll.
Concerns About Poll Methodology
While Ruto’s lead in the poll is significant, the survey has attracted criticism. Some political analysts and critics on social media have questioned the methodology of the Mizani Africa poll. Concerns have been raised about the sample size and the accuracy of the polling methods used. Despite this, Ruto’s supporters see the results as a reflection of his successful engagement with the electorate.
The Political Landscape of Tana River
Tana River County has historically been a key region in Kenyan politics. The county’s diverse ethnic groups, including the Pokomo, Orma, and Somali, make it a politically competitive area. In past elections, the region’s voters have been split, often backing different candidates. Ruto’s rising support signals a potential shift in the region’s political alignment, but his opponents will likely work hard to win back support as the 2027 election approaches.
What This Poll Means for the 2027 Race
This Mizani Africa poll offers a glimpse into the 2027 presidential race in Tana River. With 61.4% support, Ruto holds a significant lead, but the undecided voters could still play a pivotal role. The next few months will be crucial for all candidates as they work to sway the remaining voters. Ruto’s strong performance in this poll shows the effectiveness of his grassroots efforts, but his rivals will certainly ramp up their campaigns to challenge him.
