Global stocks edged higher on Friday as investors braced for two major events: the U.S. December jobs report and a potential Supreme Court tariff ruling on President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.
Importantly, the court could rule any day now on whether those tariffs—imposed last year and widely seen as market-disruptive—are lawful. If the justices strike them down, it could trigger volatility across asset classes. Treasury yields might rise due to lost government revenue, while equities could rally on improved trade sentiment.
However, analysts caution that even an unfavorable ruling may not end the tariff era. “The Trump administration is unlikely to roll over,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com. “They’ll likely find other legal avenues to maintain the levies.” Therefore, the Supreme Court tariff ruling remains what Rodda calls the “real wildcard” for markets.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to support oil and defense stocks. Developments in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland are keeping traders alert. On Friday, Brent crude hovered near a two-week high, heading for its biggest weekly gain since late October. WTI also held strong despite minor intraday dips.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, with France’s CAC 40 up 0.6%. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.6%, lifted by strong earnings from Fast Retailing, owner of Uniqlo. Back in the U.S., S&P 500 futures pointed to a modest open, following Thursday’s flat close—though defense stocks hit record highs on both sides of the Atlantic.
Equally critical is the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due later Friday. Economists expect just 60,000 jobs added, down from November’s 64,000. Notably, October saw a shocking loss of 105,000 jobs—the steepest drop in nearly five years—mostly from federal buyouts.
Earlier this week, labor data already signaled cooling momentum. JOLTS hirings and ADP private payroll figures both softened. “We don’t want an upside surprise in job creation or unemployment today,” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. “What we need is confirmation of a moderately growing economy—no overheating, no recession.”
Currently, markets price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. But a stronger-than-expected jobs report could delay or reduce that expectation, pressuring equities and supporting the dollar—which sits near a one-month high.
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump will soon name Jerome Powell’s successor as Fed chair. Markets anticipate a dovish pick, potentially influencing monetary policy well into the year.
In summary, Friday’s dual catalysts—the Supreme Court tariff ruling and jobs data—will shape investor sentiment for weeks. Until then, many traders remain cautious, preferring to wait rather than risk positioning ahead of these pivotal outcomes.
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