As Uganda heads toward its presidential election next week, the country’s oil industry has become a major focal point, with opposition candidate Bobi Wine promising to review the country’s agreements with international oil companies if he wins. Wine, who is challenging incumbent President Yoweri Museveni for the second time, has expressed concerns about the fairness of current agreements between the Ugandan government and oil giants TotalEnergies and CNOOC. Wine’s campaign has raised alarm over the country’s oil deals, promising a closer examination of the agreements to ensure they prioritize the interests of Ugandans.
Wine’s Position on Oil Deals
During an interview in Kampala, Bobi Wine, the former pop star and leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), said, “We shall study all agreements, and any part in those agreements that does not favour Ugandans will definitely be revised.” Wine’s commitment to revisiting Uganda’s oil contracts is part of his broader political platform, which focuses on fighting corruption, promoting transparency, and ensuring that natural resources benefit the nation as a whole. The opposition leader believes that the current terms of the oil deals, which have been negotiated by the government with foreign companies, are detrimental to Uganda’s economic welfare.
Uganda’s oil reserves, estimated at 6.65 billion barrels, have been the subject of ongoing development efforts, but commercial production has been repeatedly delayed due to disputes between international firms and the government, along with strong opposition from environmental groups. The country is expected to begin producing crude oil later in 2026, with fields operated by TotalEnergies, China’s CNOOC, and the Uganda National Oil Company.
Both TotalEnergies and CNOOC operate under production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with the Ugandan government, which allows these companies to explore and extract oil in exchange for sharing a portion of the profits. However, these agreements have faced criticism for being disproportionately favorable to the foreign companies involved, and there is growing concern that Uganda has not secured its fair share of the economic benefits from its oil wealth.
Concerns Over Environmental and Social Impact
Wine’s opposition to the current oil agreements is rooted in the belief that they have not adequately accounted for the environmental and social costs of oil production. Activists and environmentalists have long raised concerns about the potential for large-scale damage to Uganda’s ecosystems, particularly in the oil-rich Albertine Graben region, which lies close to Lake Albert, a key water source for the country. There are fears that oil drilling could lead to pollution, wildlife destruction, and displacement of local communities, all of which would have long-term consequences for Uganda’s agriculture and water systems.
Wine has made it clear that his administration would seek to address these concerns by ensuring that the oil production process is both environmentally sustainable and economically beneficial to the Ugandan people. This would likely involve revising contracts to ensure stricter environmental regulations, greater community engagement, and an equitable distribution of oil revenues.
The Political Context: A Changing Landscape
Bobi Wine’s promise to review the oil deals is a key part of his broader political campaign, which positions him as a reformist alternative to President Museveni, who has been in power for over three decades. In the 2021 presidential election, Wine garnered 35% of the vote, a strong showing for an opposition candidate, but he was ultimately defeated by Museveni, who won a sixth term. This year, Wine is hoping to build on his previous support by highlighting the failures of Museveni’s government, especially in the management of the country’s natural resources.
Wine’s criticisms extend beyond the oil industry to a broader critique of the political system, accusing the Museveni administration of entrenched corruption, human rights abuses, and economic mismanagement. Wine has made it clear that his vision for Uganda’s future involves making the government more accountable to the people and ensuring that the country’s resources are used for the benefit of all citizens, not just a few powerful elites.
Oil Delays and the Economic Stakes
Uganda discovered its oil reserves more than 20 years ago, but production has been delayed several times due to a combination of regulatory disputes, environmental concerns, and the complexities of negotiating with international oil companies. These delays have kept Uganda from fully benefiting from its vast oil wealth, and critics argue that the country has missed opportunities to leverage the oil boom to address pressing issues like poverty, infrastructure, and job creation.
TotalEnergies and CNOOC, both major international oil firms, have been involved in efforts to develop Uganda’s oil industry, but their operations have faced significant resistance from environmentalists, who argue that the country’s fragile ecosystems cannot withstand large-scale oil drilling. Additionally, local communities have expressed concerns about being displaced or left behind in the process, with many claiming that the benefits of oil exploration have not trickled down to the people who live closest to the oil fields.
The Ugandan government, led by Museveni, has defended the deals with TotalEnergies and CNOOC, arguing that oil production will bring much-needed revenue and jobs to the country. The government has also emphasized the potential for oil to serve as a catalyst for economic growth, helping to diversify the economy away from agriculture and reliance on foreign aid.
A Critical Election: What’s at Stake for Uganda
As Uganda prepares for its presidential election, the issue of oil deals has become one of the most hotly debated topics. Wine’s pledge to review the agreements with TotalEnergies and CNOOC is drawing attention not only because of the economic stakes but also because of the broader political implications for the country’s future. If elected, Wine would have the opportunity to reshape Uganda’s oil sector, potentially renegotiating contracts to ensure more favorable terms for the Ugandan people.
However, Wine’s critics argue that his plans to revisit the oil deals could undermine investor confidence and delay the country’s economic development. They warn that overturning existing agreements could deter foreign investment and hurt Uganda’s ability to extract and refine its oil reserves efficiently. Supporters, on the other hand, see Wine’s stance as a bold move to ensure that Uganda’s oil wealth is used in a way that benefits all citizens, rather than being siphoned off by foreign companies and corrupt elites.
As the election approaches, the debate over Uganda’s oil industry will continue to play a central role in shaping the political discourse. Whether Wine’s calls for a review of the oil deals will resonate with voters and lead to his victory remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: the future of Uganda’s oil sector, and the broader economic trajectory of the country, is a crucial issue that will define the 2026 elections.
